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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 35

New England Patriots 27 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 6-R.Allen punts 25 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.43 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP