Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Houston Texans
4th & 5 at the 20
Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(2:42) 8-N.Novak 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
The Three Options
GO
+1.66 EP
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.14 EP
- 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP
KICK
+2.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
