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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 76

New York Giants 10 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 52 yards to MIA 24, Center-57-D.Aiken. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 34 for 10 yards (54-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model