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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 17

New York Giants 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.91 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model