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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 17 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(13:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 54 yards to MIA 19, Center-57-D.Aiken. 14-J.Landry to MIA 39 for 20 yards (43-C.Dahl). NYG-55-J.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP