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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 30

New York Giants 24 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.12 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model