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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to NYG 4, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP