4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Giants 31

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to NYG 2, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-36-T.Lippett.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model