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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 92

New York Giants 31 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to NYG 48, Center-57-D.Aiken, downed by NYG-43-C.Dahl.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.21 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 92, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 50, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model