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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Giants 31

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.01 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model