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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NYG 10, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-D.Harris to NYG 30 for 20 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.88 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model