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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 37

Denver Broncos 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler left end pushed ob at LV 32 for 5 yards (53-M.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.75 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model