Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 9

(3:44) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DEN 37, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.17 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model