Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 85

Denver Broncos 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(8:14) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to LV 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model