Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 12

(7:52) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 24 for 9 yards (54-K.Toomer).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model