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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 12

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model