Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Denver Broncos 12

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-E.Sanders MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 15, RECOVERED by LV-59-J.Condo at DEN 11. 59-J.Condo to DEN 11 for no gain (85-V.Green).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model