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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 31

Denver Broncos 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model