Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 79

Denver Broncos 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

(1:32) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Thomas [96-D.Autry].

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.46 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -1.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model