Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 3

(6:40) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 22, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model