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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model