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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to CLE 11, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.40 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model