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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CLE 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.78 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model