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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(13:47) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CLE 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 18 for no gain (54-R.Armstrong). PENALTY on CLE-24-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CLE 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP