4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 24

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Q.Dial), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee, recovered by CLE-95-A.Bryant at SF 40. 95-A.Bryant to SF 42 for -2 yards (35-E.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model