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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 24 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-58-C.Kirksey.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model