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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-B.Gabbert sacked at CLE 36 for -6 yards (44-N.Orchard).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model