4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 13

New York Jets 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right guard to TEN 11 for 2 yards (59-W.Woodyard; 51-D.Bass).

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.15 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model