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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 9

New York Jets 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 8-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model