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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYJ 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 28 for 7 yards (28-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model