4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Jets 27 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-T.Purdum. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 14 for 2 yards (26-Dar.Walls). NYJ-19-D.Smith was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model