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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 61

New York Jets 27 – Tennessee Titans 8

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model