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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 44

New York Jets 27 – Tennessee Titans 8

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP