Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 8 – New York Jets 27

(8:13) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 87-E.Decker.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.97 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model