4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 8 – New York Jets 30

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker to NYJ 25 for 5 yards (21-M.Gilchrist).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.77 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP