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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 35

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 8-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model