Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(11:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to JAX 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-R.Greene to JAX 37 for 17 yards (71-K.Biermann).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model