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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 19-B.Anger punts 21 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP