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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 19-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ATL 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester to ATL 31 for no gain (29-J.Banyard).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model