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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 37

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(:08) 5-M.Bosher punts 27 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-32-J.Collins.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model