Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 95

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(13:35) 19-B.Anger punts 60 yards to ATL 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester to ATL 38 for 3 yards (52-H.Pullard).

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 95, worth -5.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model