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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to ATL 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Hester pushed ob at ATL 41 for 8 yards (29-J.Banyard).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model