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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 6-S.Graham 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.31 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model