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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 15-A.Robinson (23-R.Alford).

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -0.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model