Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) (Punt formation) 14-E.Weems left end pushed ob at JAX 48 for 8 yards (25-P.Thompson). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 48.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model