Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(8:45) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to JAX 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-54-N.Stupar.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model