Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 8-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Harris to NYG 11 for 2 yards (97-M.Addison). PENALTY on NYG-20-P.Amukamara, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at NYG 6. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model