Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 71

New York Giants 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to CAR 25, Center-57-D.Aiken. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 25 for no gain (21-L.Collins). PENALTY on CAR-56-A.Klein, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.94 EP
57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model