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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to NYG 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Harris to NYG 31 for 2 yards (33-T.Boston).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model