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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 49

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to CAR 4, Center-57-D.Aiken, downed by NYG-46-J.Morris.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.55 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model